CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-08-28T07:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-08-28T07:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17609/-1
CME Note: The source is a M4.7 class flare peaking at 2021-08-28T06:11Z from active region 12860 located at S28E00 at the time of the eruption. This eruption is visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and SDO/AIA wavelengths. An EUV wave is visible in SDO/AIA 193, 171, and 211 starting around 2021-08-28T06:00Z, propagating northward, followed by a post-eruptive arcade starting around 2021-08-28T07:20Z. A dimming region is visible above the brightening active region during the EUV wave. Some plasma material is also visible lifting off during this eruption shortly after the flare peaks. Arrival characterized by slow magnetic field amplitude rise (reaching only 6.5 nT), accompanied by density/temperature rise, followed by field component rotation, density/tempurature drop, and speed rise. Followed by a SSBC at 2021-09-03T12:12Z, which obscures the later part of the ICME arrival signature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-03T06:19Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-08-31T14:54Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021] % Compiled module: EAM_V3. ****************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 261.0 km/s The EAM version you are running is: v3 u_r = 187.323 Acceleration: 2.31063 Duration in seconds: 287696.37 Duration in days: 3.3298191 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 2.31 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 852.1 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 31/08/2021 Time: 14:54 UTLead Time: 118.82 hour(s)
Difference: 63.42 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2021-08-29T07:30Z
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